No statistic better defines the tangible, on-the-field performance like WAR does and for that reason, it is THE primary figure used in my algorithm.
There are a lot of stats that are important to evaluating the individual player performance but putting those individual stats together to get a view of the SUM of the parts is better accomplished using WAR.
A lot of old-school handicappers and fans might say that the eyeball test is better. Better to who? I cannot quantify an eyeball test. I thought the swing of Jose Guillen was one of the best right-handed swings in baseball and I’ve never particularly liked the tight, compact swing of Mike Trout. But can you ever argue Guillen was a better hitter than Trout is today?
WAR removes the subjective from the equation.
Combined with the CORRECT WAR for each player in a lineup as well as a few other necessary calculations, one can better gauge the chances of TEAM A’s chances of beating TEAM B. And when it comes to betting on baseball games, that is the only thing that matters to me. Coupled with the financial math that runs the calculation looking for a POSITIVE EXPECTATION OVER TIME, it becomes relatively easy to target your bet for maximum return.
Now, just because the algo suggests TEAM A should win 69% of the times it pays TEAM B ( given identical lineups in each game ) doesn’t mean it’s a lock. THERE ARE NO LOCKS!
But given the chance to toss my money at the RIGHT MATH is what I look for time and time again and it’s really the only thing a proper sports handicapper and better can rely on. And believe me, there is math and then there is the RIGHT MATH.