I know that a lot of betters of baseball games rely on the starter’s ERA for determining their pick to win, the over/under, and possibly the spread.
What happens when a team uses an OPENER instead of a starter?
The calculation required to account for this isn’t hard to consider IF you rely on the right betting model.
My model uses a weighted value based on a given starter or opener’s projected innings pitched in his starts. As the season wears on and the pitcher’s IP increases or decreases, so too does the factor of the team’s bullpen come in to play.
So many bets are lost in the sixth through ninth innings when the bullpen is now trying to hold or save a lead.
If you can navigate the bullpen, you can usually win big over time.
Knowing how to “weight” the bullpen will matter more and more as teams transition from a traditional “starter” to the more modern “opener”.
I’m ready for that transition.