In April of 2018, the 2017 World Champion Astros and their ace pitcher, Justin Verlander, hosted the Texas Rangers on Sunday Night Baseball. The Astros were heavy favorites with the odds for the Stros at -300. This was partly because the Rangers, who would finish with 95 losses that season, threw 44-year old Bartolo Colon. In his three starts heading into that game, Colon had three no-decisions but the Rangers had lost all of his starts thus far with a team record of 5-11.
The Astros, on the other hand, were 10-5 and were 2-0 in Verlander’s two starts prior to that game.
It was easy to understand why the Astros were such huge favorites. Sure thing?
THERE ARE NO SURE THINGS!
The preservation of bankroll to live another day is critical to long term success in sports betting just as much as winning more than losing is critical to longevity in this business. If you lose all of your money on a sure thing, you eliminate the ability to be around long enough to profit from smaller, mathematically correct bets.
I know a lot of bettors lost a lot of bankroll that night.
Even if I hadn’t bet the game, it would have been better than betting and losing.
Luckily for me, there is a simple formula that keeps me from making bad bets.
Just as important, though, is the philosophy of Preservation of Bankroll.
How much to wager, even on “sure things” is what gets most betters in trouble and causes them to later make bad bets trying to catch up on bad losses.
If you know you are going to lose occasionally (you just aren’t sure when that’s going to happen), it’s not prudent to EVER risk hurting your bankroll on a sure thing – there is no such thing.
Colon and the Rangers went off at +285 against the Stros that night and that is the same as saying the Rangers had a 26% change of winning the game (the Astros at -300 were the equivalent of a 75% chance).
My model had also predicted the Astros to win that night with a winning chance of 73%. But because the book was asking the equivalent of 75% to buy the bet and only 27% to buy the dog, the dog was the bet for me. You might think that’s close enough to take the favorite. I guess that depends on the confidence of your model and your philosophy on margin-of-error.
At 3% of my bankroll bet and only 10 bets for the day on April 15, even if I had lost all my bets placed for the day, I wouldn’t have been eliminated from betting on the next day’s games.
YES, it’s true, I’ll never have a huge day winning a lot of money but I have an excellent chance of bankroll creep…the slow, steady progress of increasing my bankroll just a little bit every day, compounding over time and ending the season with a nice overall profit.
I went 7-3 on April 15, 2018 and hit the big Dog when Colon went head-to-head with Verlander and the Rangers won the game in extra innings with both starters out of the game. Increased my bankroll 41% for the day (maybe sometimes I DO have a huge day). I consider this a really successful day. I didn’t risk losing my entire stake, increased it substantially when I hit a large majority of the games, and three of my seven winner were dogs (Colorado at +185 and Philly at +118).
Moral of the story: Don’t EVER risk it all because there are no sure things.
If you would like to follow this proven system and experience the bankroll creep that I do, CLICK HERE.