Baseball can be very tough to handicap in April.  Teams are just not completely in the form that they will be by the end of the season.  Projections are tough because until there are some real stats from which to base a player’s performance, everything is a really educated guess.  Those of us that rely on statistics to make algorithmic predictions know just how fickle April can be.

Last season, on April 13, the Los Angeles Dodgers started the day at 4-7, eventually were as bad as 4-9 (.308) and yet finished the season at 92-71 with their tiebreaker game added.

This season, on April 12, the Boston Red Sox started the day at 4-9 (.308).  Is there any doubt this team is NOT this bad?

So far this season, I’ve picked just 51% winners and I’ve seen my bankroll decline by about 16% ( all of my season’s picks and record are located by clicking HERE ).

I know that I won’t finish with this record, just as I’m sure that the BoSox won’t finish with 112 losses.

In the last couple of days, I’ve gained 14% of bankroll back by going 12-5.  As April matures, so too does the model’s ability to predict winning picks.

Reversion to the mean is important.  As the stat group, and performance, move back to normal, there will be very profitable days ahead.

The best is yet to come.

To get picks emailed to you BEFORE the game, click HERE.

 

Published by Abe Pecota

Las Vegas Sports Better & professional Handicapper

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