April Sucked

April sucked in so many ways.

We had a pool installed in the fall last year but the hardscape contractor couldn’t work when it’s wet.  So all winter, my brand new pool sat in a sea of dirt/mud.  Then Spring came around and we finally got back on the schedule.  But then Noah’s rains hit my area and it was AGAIN too wet to do any real work out.  APRIL.

Sheesh.  This crew moves slower than watching paint dry.  After 10 days of on again/off again working, this is how much has been worked on.fullsizeoutput_1723

I’ll admit.  It’s not nothing but man, they have like 10 pallets of pavers still to set.  Maybe by the Fourth of July?

My model took a huge hit in April.  I’ve documented every day’s bets.  Most days were bad.  This is the challenge/risk using projected stats from stat geeks.

BUT…….Baseball Prospectus DRA hit today just in time to get back on the horse.  Real-time pitching stats. updated daily.  Looking forward to getting back what I lost and heading towards a profitable year.

NOTE:  I have had profitable Aprils BUT it’s very inconsistent.  Will NOT be betting ANYTHING until the DRA stats are released next season.

Good luck to you all.

Baseball in April #dodgers #redsox #mlb

Baseball can be very tough to handicap in April.  Teams are just not completely in the form that they will be by the end of the season.  Projections are tough because until there are some real stats from which to base a player’s performance, everything is a really educated guess.  Those of us that rely on statistics to make algorithmic predictions know just how fickle April can be.

Last season, on April 13, the Los Angeles Dodgers started the day at 4-7, eventually were as bad as 4-9 (.308) and yet finished the season at 92-71 with their tiebreaker game added.

This season, on April 12, the Boston Red Sox started the day at 4-9 (.308).  Is there any doubt this team is NOT this bad?

So far this season, I’ve picked just 51% winners and I’ve seen my bankroll decline by about 16% ( all of my season’s picks and record are located by clicking HERE ).

I know that I won’t finish with this record, just as I’m sure that the BoSox won’t finish with 112 losses.

In the last couple of days, I’ve gained 14% of bankroll back by going 12-5.  As April matures, so too does the model’s ability to predict winning picks.

Reversion to the mean is important.  As the stat group, and performance, move back to normal, there will be very profitable days ahead.

The best is yet to come.

To get picks emailed to you BEFORE the game, click HERE.

 

Game Day – Rosters due at Noon ET

Today every team plays.

Rosters are due at noon ET.

Once rosters are released, line-ups for each team should follow with each team typically releasing their lineup about 2 hours before its game.

To get any sort of idea what chances a team has of winning,  you need to know who’s playing ( and where ) and who’s available.

We know the starting pitchers have been announced for each team.

We know who isn’t hurt.

We don’t know where the managers intend to bat them in the lineup.  Is this important? Yes.  There are roughly 120 fewer plate appearances during the season for the ninth batter as compared to the leadoff batter.

It might seem insignificant but every small advantage added to another seemingly small advantage and pretty soon, you have an extremely quantifiable advantage in the prediction.  It’s a slight edge, but it’s an edge.

Welcome to the SteadyPlus approach to seemingly insignificant ( because it’s not ).

Welcome to the 2019 MLB season.

Free picks for the ALL of the first half of 2019.

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And we’re off Game 1 of the 2019 Season #mariners #athletics

Once the lineups were released, calculating the direction of the bet was validated.  Late on 3/19, I advised my followers that mathematically speaking, the A’s were the bet.  At that time, the A’s bet cost -117 and our preliminary lineups for both teams projected the A’s should be -141.   Since that time, the lineups have revised the As chance of winning to a -139 chance of winning and the bet is now up to -145.

Because we booked the A’s at -117, the A’s bet is the mathematical choice for our 3%.

Screen Shot 2019-03-20 at 3.26.50 AM

 

It should be noted that if the odds at our first view were as they are now, OAK-145, SEA+135, we would have NO BET the game.

There is no bet given those choices that provide a mathematically positive expectation of winning.  Luckily for us, we booked at our bet BEFORE the betting public drove the cost of the ticket to the current levels.

YEA for us.

Follow us for Free the entire first half by signing up here.  You get picks BEFORE the game begins:

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#Ichiro to start for #Mariners in Japan

The Mariners manager says that Suzuki will start in the games in Japan although he does not state how long he’ll play.

Ichiro figures to contribute NEGATIVE W.A.R. to the Mariner’s overall numbers this year.

Based on current projections, subject to change, the M’s will probably be a +125 underdog in the first game.

The Hidden Pitfalls of “Sure Things”

In April of 2018, the 2017 World Champion Astros and their ace pitcher, Justin Verlander, hosted the Texas Rangers on Sunday Night Baseball.  The Astros were heavy favorites with the odds for the Stros at -300.  This was partly because the Rangers, who would finish with 95 losses that season, threw 44-year old Bartolo Colon.  In his three starts heading into that game, Colon had three no-decisions but the Rangers had lost all of his starts thus far with a team record of 5-11.

 

The Astros, on the other hand, were 10-5 and were 2-0 in Verlander’s two starts prior to that game.

 

It was easy to understand why the Astros were such huge favorites.  Sure thing?

 

THERE ARE NO SURE THINGS!

 

The preservation of bankroll to live another day is critical to long term success in sports betting just as much as winning more than losing is critical to longevity in this business. If you lose all of your money on a sure thing, you eliminate the ability to be around long enough to profit from smaller, mathematically correct bets.

 

I know a lot of bettors lost a lot of bankroll that night.

I didn’t.

Even if I hadn’t bet the game, it would have been better than betting and losing.

Luckily for me, there is a simple formula that keeps me from making bad bets.

Just as important, though, is the philosophy of Preservation of Bankroll.

How much to wager, even on “sure things” is what gets most betters in trouble and causes them to later make bad bets trying to catch up on bad losses.  

If you know you are going to lose occasionally (you just aren’t sure when that’s going to happen), it’s not prudent to EVER risk hurting your bankroll on a sure thing – there is no such thing.

 

Colon and the Rangers went off at +285 against the Stros that night and that is the same as saying the Rangers had a 26% change of winning the game (the Astros at -300 were the equivalent of a 75% chance).

 

My model had also predicted the Astros to win that night with a winning chance of 73%.  But because the book was asking the equivalent of 75% to buy the bet and only 27% to buy the dog, the dog was the bet for me.  You might think that’s close enough to take the favorite.  I guess that depends on the confidence of your model and your philosophy on margin-of-error.

 

At 3% of my bankroll bet and only 10 bets for the day on April 15, even if I had lost all my bets placed for the day, I wouldn’t have been eliminated from betting on the next day’s games.

YES, it’s true, I’ll never have a huge day winning a lot of money but I have an excellent chance of bankroll creep…the slow, steady progress of increasing my bankroll just a little bit every day, compounding over time and ending the season with a nice overall profit.

I went 7-3 on April 15, 2018 and hit the big Dog when Colon went head-to-head with Verlander and the Rangers won the game in extra innings with both starters out of the game. Increased my bankroll 41% for the day (maybe sometimes I DO have a huge day).  I consider this a really successful day.  I didn’t risk losing my entire stake, increased it substantially when I hit a large majority of the games, and three of my seven winner were dogs (Colorado at +185 and Philly at +118).

 

Moral of the story: Don’t EVER risk it all because there are no sure things.

If you would like to follow this proven system and experience the bankroll creep that I do, CLICK HERE.

Why rely on luck if you don’t have to?

There’s a week left before things start counting and opportunity pays off for those who’ve prepared.

Game One of the 2019 season is just a week away.

Have you mapped out a plan to take $500 and turn it into $1500? How about $5000 into $15000?

If not, now is the time to think about how you’ll get that done.

I’m giving away the picks and bet amounts for my proven system for the first half of the season.

If you haven’t done the homework for yourself, consider choosing someone that has. Your “gut” isn’t a reliable, objective source for a long term strategy.

Don’t forget, a good result from a bad process doesn’t convert the process into a good process. It’s just luck.

Why rely on luck if you don’t have to?

You relying on luck is how the casinos can add on to their hotels every few years.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FREE PICKS!